Oakland Residents Sad With Mayor Schaaf, Decide Rebecca Kaplan As Subsequent Mayor In Survey

Greg McConnell of Oakland Jobs and Housing Coalition

2021 Oakland Mayor And City Council – 2022 Elections Survey By Jobs And Housing Coalition

Zennie Abraham note: This is the latest version of the long running survey of Oaklanders by the Oakland Jobs and Housing Coalition. Some of the highlights are these:

  1. The vast majority of the 400 survey respondents say they are not happy with the job Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf is doing. Moreover, her unpopularity is so great that I now argue her willingness to make herself the face of Howard Terminal, combined with her staff’s poor showing in Alameda County presentation meetings on July 20th and October 24th, is hurting the project from the perspective of public opinion.
  2. In the upcoming election, At-Large Councilmember (and Schaaf political enemy in an unexplained, obvious, and arguably childish dislike for each other) Rebecca Kaplan, leads all current expected candidates in the upcoming 2022 Oakland Mayoral Election
  3. With the exception of Rebecca Kaplan the vast majority of Councilmembers seeking the Mayoral seat were unknown to the survey respondents.
  4. Greg McConnell did not include all of the current Oakland Mayoral Candidates in his survey, and the ones he listed are not officially running. So, Stephen Schear, Tyron Jordan, Derrick Soo, and Allyssa Victory Villanueva are all left out. In my opinion that renders the survey not helpful. Derrick Soo is a constant media presence given that he broke the story regarding the cannabis raid, and has a popular YouTube Channel and is a vlogger at ZENNIE62MEDIA, INC. He also left out Nancy Sidebotham, who has said she’s running for Mayor, even though she too is not officially listed on the City Clerk website. Greg McConnell, the Oakland Jobs and Housing Coalition Executive Director, shows a giant old white media bias here. The impact of ethnic media and social media is not considered – big mistake,
  5. Oakland District Seven Councilmember Treva Reid is running for Mayor of Oakland, yet she just got elected in 2022. The survey reflects the fact that, even as Councilmember, Treva Reid has virtually no name recognition. Indeed, that’s true for Loren Taylor and Sheng Thao. Their reliance on a combination of white old mainstream media, and Facebook and Instagram, and Twitter, have not worked well for them. And in Treva’s case, her media outreach has been God-awful. The survey shows that. And why are these just-electeds running for Mayor when they’re clearly not known as Councilmembers?
  6. The survey also mentions my friend Oakland Developer Phil Tagami as an Oakland mayoral election hopeful, even though he’s not listed. It also shows most Oaklanders have no idea who Phil is. I wonder what the survey would reveal if my name or that of Frank Somerville’s was included.
  7. In my view, the survey grade is a C-Minus. Greg missed a chance to do a really helpful elections survey by mentioning everyone running, and show the impact of social-media savvy Oakland political players. I know why Loren and Treva in particular are not well known, and how they can change that, but I’ll leave that to myself.

With that, here’s the results of the 2022 Oakland Jobs and Housing Coalition Survey

FINAL RESULTS: Oakland Voter Survey Sample Size: 400
Margin of Error: +/-4.9%
Interview Dates: October 16-18, 2021

Select: Registered Oakland voters, with working telephone numbers or email addresses in the state voter file, likely to vote in November 2022.

Results may not add to 100 due to rounding.

SECTION 1. SCREENING AND MOOD

1. IF CELL PHONE: Are you in a safe place where you can take a survey over your cell phone?

Yes 100

2. Are you employed as a news reporter, an elected official, staff to an elected official, or as a high-level employee of local government?

No 100

3. In November of next year, there will be an election for governor, members of Congress, and state and local offices.

What are the chances that you will vote in that election?

Please use a scale of 0 to 10, where 10 means you will definitely vote and 0 means you will definitely not vote, and 5 means you’re 50/50.

________________________________________________ Page 1

  1. Just in general, do you think things in Oakland are moving in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? Right direction 17 – Wrong track 63 – Don’t know 20
  2. Would you say that the overall quality of life in Oakland has become better in the past few years, become worse, or stayed about the same? Better 8 – Worse 66 – Stayed about the same 23 – Don’t know 3

6. And what do you feel are the major issues facing Oakland today?

Homelessness/ Panhandling 49

Affordable Housing/ Cost of Rents 23

Crime/ Public Safety 47

Transportation/ Infrastructure 4

Education 5

Poverty/ Income Inequality 6

Gentrification/ Displacement 4

Illegal Dumping/ Trash in Streets 9

Cost of Living 3

Corruption/ Government 3

Growth/ Development/ Land use 1

Not Enough Police/ Inadequate Police 8

The Economy/ Jobs 5

Taxes 1

Police Brutality/ Racial Profiling 2

Social Issues – Abortion/ Gay Marriage/ Racism 3

Traffic 2

Healthcare 2

The Budget 2

Health of Small/ Local Business 0

Other 3

Pandemic 1

Climate / Environment 2

Don’t know 4

________________________________________________ Page 2

SECTION 2. ELECTIONS

As you may know, in Oakland City elections, voters are asked to rank their top choices for candidate contests.

7. Understanding that the election is still far away, and you may want more information about the candidates before making a decision, if the election for Mayor of Oakland were held today and these were the candidates, who would be your first choice?

8. IF CHOICE: And who would be your second choice?

Loren Taylor, City Councilmember – First Choice = 9 Second Choice = 2 Total = 11

Sheng Thao, City Councilmember – First Choice = 3 Second Choice = 4 Total = 6

Treva Reid, City Councilmember – First Choice = 3 Second Choice = 1 Total = 4

Rebecca Kaplan, City Councilmember – First Choice = 14 Second Choice = 6 Total = 20

Ces Butner, Port Commissioner – First Choice = 1 Second Choice = 1 Total = 1

Derreck Johnson, Small Business Owner – First Choice = 2 Second Choice = 2 Total = 4

Ignacio De La Fuente, Former City Councilmember – First Choice = 3 Second Choice = 4 Total = 7

Greg Hodge, Youth Development Consultant – First Choice = 2 Second Choice = 2 Total = 3

Ken Houston, Community Advocate – First Choice = 1 Second Choice = 1 Total = 2

Phil Tagami, Oakland Developer – First Choice = 2 Second Choice = 0 Total = 2

Completely undecided – First Choice = 62 Second Choice = 17 Total = 79

Would not vote – First Choice = 0 Second Choice = 1 Total = 1

No Second Choice – First Choice = 0 Second Choice = 62 Total = 62

9. If the election for Oakland City Auditor were held today, would you vote to…

Reelect Courtney Ruby 18

Replace Courtney Ruby 10

Undecided 72

Would not vote 1

________________________________________________ Page 3

SECTION 3. FAVORABILITY

(Now I’m going to read / Next are) the names of some individuals. For each one, please (tell me / indicate) if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. If you have not heard of the name, just (say so indicate that).Favorability Table

Approve DisapproveApprove Disapprove

________________________________________________ Page 4

25. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Courtney Ruby is doing as City Auditor?

Approve strongly 6

Approve somewhat 13

Disapprove somewhat 7

Disapprove strongly 10

Don’t know 64

SECTION 4.MAYOR OF OAKLAND

  1. Because of term limits in Oakland, Mayor Libby Schaaf is not eligible to run for reelection next year. If Mayor Schaaf could run again, would you vote to reelect her or to replace her? Reelect = 25 Replace = 58 Don’t know = 18
  2. If Mayor Schaaf endorsed a candidate for Mayor of Oakland, would her endorsement make you [ROTATE] [more likely to vote for that candidate], [less likely to vote for that candidate], or would it make no difference in your vote? Much more likely = 7 Somewhat more likely = 19 Would make no difference = 30 Somewhat less likely = 11 Much less likely = 24 Don’t know = 9

(Now I’m going to read / Next are) some things a candidate for Mayor might focus on. Please (tell me, indicate) whether each would make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or if it would make no difference in your vote.

SECTION 5. CRIME

  1. Next, how much are you personally concerned about crime in Oakland? Very concerned 67 Somewhat concerned 20 Slightly concerned 8 Not concerned at all 5 Don’t know 1
  2. Do you think that crime in Oakland is… Getting better 3 Getting worse 73 Staying the same 19 Don’t know 5
  3. Which of the following are you personally most concerned about? Property crime such as theft or car break-ins 26 Violent crime such as assault or gun violence 67 Don’t know 7
  4. How safe do you personally feel from property crime, like car break-ins and theft? Very safe 6 Somewhat safe 23 Somewhat unsafe 34 Very unsafe 34 Don’t know 1 Prefer not to say 2
  5. How safe do you personally feel from violent crime, like assault or gun violence? Very safe 10 Somewhat safe 29 Somewhat unsafe 32 Very unsafe 26 Don’t know 1 Prefer not to say 2

________________________________________________ Page 6

Next please (tell me / indicate) whether you support or oppose the following proposals for Oakland to address crime and public safety.

________________________________________________ Page 7Priorities

46. What is your age?

Under 35 – 24
35-44 – 20
45-54 – 16
55-64 – 16
65+ – 5
Prefer not to say – 0

  1. Which of the following best describes you? Latino or Hispanic – 11
    White or Caucasian – 35
    Black or African American – 34
    Asian American or Pacific Islander – 11
    Native American – 1
    Middle Eastern or North African – 1
    A combination of these (SPECIFY: ______) Something else (SPECIFY: ______) – 0
    Prefer not to say – 5
  2. IF SELF-IDENTIFIED ASIAN-AMERICAN: Are you…? (n=44)

Chinese 39

Filipino 9

Vietnamese 11

Japanese 7

Korean 5

South Asian 5

Southeast Asian 14

Pacific Islander 0

Other (Specify: _____) 9 Prefer not to say 2

SECTION 6.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Chinese 39 Filipino 9 Vietnamese 11 Japanese 7 Korean 5 South Asian 5 Southeast Asian 14 Pacific Islander 0 Other (Specify: _____) 9 Prefer not to say 2

49. Which best describes your educational background?

High school graduate or less 4

Some college or associate’s degree 19

Technical school or vocational degree 3

College graduate 38

Post graduate degree 34

Prefer not to say 3

________________________________________________ Page 8

50. How many years have you lived in Oakland?

1 Year or Less 2

2-5 Years 14

6-10 Years 12

11-20 Years 23

21-30 Years 18

More than 30 Years 29

Prefer not to say 3

  1. Do you have children under the age of 18 living at home? Yes 23 No 77 Prefer not to say 1
  2. Do you currently own or rent your home or apartment, or do you have another housing situation? Own 53 Rent 39 Other 7 Prefer not to say 1
  3. IF RENT: Is your apartment rent controlled? (n=157) Yes 36 No 50 Don’t know 11 Prefer not to say 3
  4. Which of the following best describes your political ideology? Progressive 40 Liberal 28 Moderate 20 Conservative 6 Other (Specify: _____) 1 Don’t know 6
  5. For whom did you vote in the 2020 election for President, or did you skip that election? Donald Trump 4 Joe Biden 82 Someone else 8 Don’t remember 0 Prefer not to say 6

________________________________________________ Page 9

56. And do you consider yourself heterosexual, bisexual, gay or lesbian, or something else?

Heterosexual 72 Bisexual 6 Gay/Lesbian 13 Other (____) 4 Don’t know 1 Prefer not to say 5

  1. IF ONLINE: Are you…?
    IF PHONE: RECORD GENDER Female 56 Male 44 Other (Specify: _____) 0
  2. RECORD PARTY: DEMOCRAT 77 REPUBLICAN 4 NO PARTY PREFERENCE 16 MINOR PARTY 3

________________________________________________ Page 10

Stay tuned for more on this Oakland survey by The Oakland Jobs and Housing Coalition

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